Argonauts

Methodology

How Argonauts reads the market.

No predictions, no indicators soup, no gut feel. Argonauts tracks one thing — when an asset's trend flips — across every major market, and is honest about the odds of every setup it shows.

01The line in the sand

Every asset gets a single trend line — the Money Line — that adapts to that asset's own volatility. Price above the line: the trend is bull. A candle closing below it: the trend flips bear (and vice versa). The line's current value is always shown — it's the exact price where the trend would change, so you always know your line in the sand before you enter.

Signals come from closed candles only. A forming bar can wobble across the line all day without triggering anything — so a signal, once shown, never repaints or disappears. What you see at candle close is what the record keeps.

02Daily leads, weekly confirms

The same line runs on two clocks. The daily is the early warning — it flips first, catches more moves, and produces more noise. The weekly is the regime — slower, harder to flip, and the one that defines whether an asset is in an uptrend at all. They routinely disagree, and that disagreement is information: a daily bull flip inside a weekly bear regime is a bounce until proven otherwise.

A buy signal is the alignment: weekly AND daily both bull. It ends — and the paper ledger exits — the moment either one closes bear. That daily flip level is your stop, published on every signal.

03Conviction: the odds, synthesized

Not all aligned signals are equal, so each one carries a 0–100 conviction score built strictly from factors we backtested — never from opinion. How far price has run above the exit level (entries near the line historically won ~60%; chasing +25% won 0 of 11), whether Bitcoin's own regime is behind an altcoin (against a falling BTC, alt entries won ~1 in 11), how the method has historically performed on that specific asset, and whether market breadth is collapsing. Hover any score to see exactly which factors moved it and by how much — the number is auditable, not an oracle.

The same stats power the warnings on every signal ("late — risk 12%", "BTC daily bear"): Argonauts tells you when its own signal has historically been a bad bet. A tool that only ever says "buy" is marketing; this one argues with itself.

04The record keeps itself

Argonauts paper-trades every buy signal automatically — entries and exits stamped at scan time from closed candles, flat $1,000 stake per trade, losers included, nothing ever backdated or edited. The full ledger is public on the track record page, and every scan passes a data-quality gate before it can touch that record (see the status page) — a broken data feed pages the operator instead of corrupting the ledger.

05What Argonauts is not

It's not a prediction engine and not financial advice — it's a disciplined, transparent way to see trend changes across ~200 assets the moment they confirm, with honest odds attached. The exact construction and parameters of the Money Line are the product and aren't published; everything else — the rules, the record, the odds — is open on these pages. Past performance doesn't guarantee anything.